|
Stock investors are treading cautiously as the US Federal Reserve begins its two day monetary policy meeting. Even so, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq did manage to squeeze in new record closing highs yesterday.
The Fed’s policy decision, as well as updated economic projections and interest rate outlooks, and a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. On Wednesday morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due out, which will be the first look at May inflation and the final piece of key data the Fed sees as it wraps up its policy meeting.
Many on Wall Street are nervous that the combination of the Fed decision and CPI could make for a very volatile trading day on Wednesday. A softer CPI print in the morning could boost the bulls but that could be reversed by a more “hawkish” sounding Powell and/or a severe trim to officials’ rate cut outlook, aka the “dot plot.”
Probably the worst case scenario for the bulls would be higher-than-expected May inflation read, a “no rate cut” outlook, and Powell focusing his comments on the stubborn inflation problem.
A long shot bullish surprise would be for Fed officials to maintain their outlook for three -25 basis point rate cuts.
Bottom line, Wednesday seems ripe for knee jerk reactions and it could make for another quiet trading day today, especially with stocks at record levels.
The only economic data on the calendar today is the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. On the earnings front, the top highlight is Oracle, which reports after the market close.
Tech bulls are hoping for an announcement about a rumored collaboration between Oracle and xAI, the AI startup from Elon Musk, which could in turn help provide more fuel for the extreme bullishness surrounding all-things-AI. Other earnings of note today include Academy Sports & Outdoors and Casey’s General Stores. All eyes and ears are on tomorrows Fed announcement and Chair Powell's post meeting comments. Stay tuned...
Gas Prices Tumbling: Gas prices have fallen about -24 cents a gallon from a month ago and are now averaging around $3.40 per gallon (some areas averaging sub-$3.00 per gallon) and are at their lowest June level since 2021 and the recent drop in price is the largest since July of last year. This is likely happening because not only have oil prices dropped, but refinery maintenance is behind us, and refineries have continued to crank up output, boosting supplies, and we are also releasing reserves. The declines in gas prices follow the U.S. Department of Energy announcement last month to release 1 million barrels of gasoline from the nation’s Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve (NGSR) to help lower fuel prices during the summer driving season. The reserve, established in the wake of superstorm Sandy in 2012, only holds 1 million barrels, or 42 million gallons of gasoline, so the release would empty out the reserve. U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm said the gas in the reserve would be released “strategically” between Memorial Day and July Fourth. Source MarketWatch & Forbes |
 |
|
Keep Your Eye On This... Dockworkers at Ports From Boston to Houston Halt Labor Talks: The union representing dockworkers at East and Gulf Coast container ports has suspended labor contract negotiations set for Tuesday, citing a dispute over automation. The breakdown comes less than four months before the current six-year pact between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the US Maritime Alliance, representing ocean carriers and terminal operators, is set to expire on Sept. 30. The agreement covers about 45,000 dockworkers from Boston to Houston, including six of the 10 busiest US ports. The impasse also arrives just as a fresh round of global shipping disruptions drives ocean freight rates to highs not seen since the pandemic. Strikes at US ports are rare. The ILA hasn’t had a coastwide strike since 1977. But striking a new deal this summer will be difficult with union and industry groups far apart on wage increases and at odds over automation technology. The ILA is demanding wage gains to make up for inflation and a share of the extraordinary profits won by ocean liners during the pandemic. It’s asking for more than the 32% increase won by West Coast counterparts last summer, according to the person familiar with the talks. The shipping industry, meanwhile, is under strain from a number of other issues, including attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, which have caused congestion and stretched capacity on other trade lanes, Köse said. Looming trade tariffs are also encouraging importers to deliver goods before global trade wars heat up. The ILA contract talks are likely to inflate container rates that are already on the rise as the summer goes on. Source Bloomberg |
 |
|
Apple Brings ChatGPT to its Apps: Apple is bringing ChatGPT, OpenAI’s AI-powered chatbot experience, to Siri and other first-party apps and capabilities across its operating systems. The tech giant announced the news during a keynote at WWDC 2024 in Cupertino on Monday. Soon, Siri will be able to tap ChatGPT for “expertise” where it might be helpful, Apple says. Apple’s also integrated ChatGPT into system-wide writing tools like Writing Tools, which lets you create content with ChatGPT — including images — or ask an initial idea and send it to ChatGPT to get a revision or variation back. ChatGPT integrations will arrive on iOS 18, iPadOS 18 and macOS Sequoia later this year, Apple says, and will be free without the need to create a ChatGPT or OpenAI account. Source TechCrunch
Apple Intelligence on Your iPhone Probably Requires an Upgrade: Apple’s website says Apple Intelligence, the company’s take on generative AI, is supported on devices that run the M1 chip, such as the iPad Air, iPad Pro and Macs. That covers most products that are several years old. However, it will only support the 2023 iPhone 15 Pro Max and iPhone 15 Pro, not the regular iPhone 15. That could help Apple drive new iPhone upgrades this fall. The company announced $45.96 billion in iPhone revenue during the second quarter, down nearly -10% from the year-ago quarter. The result suggested weak demand for the current iPhones released in September. Source CNBC
Gen Z Workers Are Making #BlueCollar Cool: Most of the time, when Lexis Czumak-Abreu is stripping cables in a ditch or troubleshooting a sparking outlet, the size of her fan base doesn’t mean too much to her. But then she’ll be strolling through the airport in Las Vegas, and a stranger will call her name. Some 2.2 million people on TikTok, Instagram and Facebook watch Czumak-Abreu do her work as an electrician in Cornwall, N.Y. Since she began posting videos from her job in 2022, she’s gotten thousands of messages from viewers saying she sparked their interest in trade work. Czumak-Abreu’s path is one that more young Americans are considering. Skepticism about the cost and value of four-year degrees is growing, and enrollment in vocational programs has risen as young people pursue well-paying jobs that don’t require desks or so much debt, and come with the potential to be your own boss. Fostering that appeal are workers like Czumak-Abreu, whose short videos have racked up millions of views. Some skilled-trades influencers are so popular, they’re making more money as influencers than they do plumbing or wiring. Source WSJ
|
|
|
Futures trading is speculative and involves the potential loss of investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors.
Nell Sloane, Capital Trading Group, LLLP is not affiliated with nor do they endorse, sponsor, or recommend any product or service advertised herein, unless otherwise specifically noted.
The information contained herein was taken from financial information sources deemed to be reliable and accurate at the time it was published, but changes in the marketplace may cause this information to become out dated and obsolete.
It should be noted that Capital Trading Group, LLLP nor Nell Sloane has verified the completeness of the information contained herein. Statements of opinion and recommendations, will be introduced as such, and generally reflect the judgment and opinions of Nell Sloane, these opinions may change at any time without written notice, and Capital Trading Group, LLLP assumes no duty or responsibility to update you regarding any changes. Market opinions contained herein are intended as general observations and are not intended as specific investment advice.
Any references to products offered by Capital Trading Group, LLLP are not a solicitation for any investment. Readers are urged to contact your account representative for more information about the unique risks associated with futures trading and we encourage you to review all disclosures before making any decision to invest. This electronic newsletter does not constitute an offer of sales of any securities. Nell Sloane, Capital Trading Group, LLP and their officers, directors, and/or employees may or may not have investments in markets or programs mentioned herein. |