Commentary- Testing Using AI Data Till After New Year 

As we head into 2024, significant market changes are on the horizon, largely driven by the speculation of lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve. In North Texas, the housing market is hopeful for a boost in home sales, with builders optimistic that lower mortgage rates will attract potential buyers. There is a similar expectation in the commercial real estate sector, looking forward to a rebound by the second half of next year if interest rates are decreased.

The price of commodities like WTI crude oil futures and gold also reflects this optimism. Crude oil futures continue to be in favor as supply issues plague the market, while gold's rally is on account of the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar. On the other hand, the stock market has been showing mixed developments. US stock futures have been marginally flattening, but the S&P 500 is in potential reach of a record level.

European shares are on the rise as well, with global stock markets lingering near record highs. Even silver prices have corrected amid thin trading volumes due to holiday celebrations. Meanwhile, select stocks like HDFC Bank and Axis Bank are experiencing surges.

However, increasing geopolitical concerns like the ongoing Israel-Hamas war could prove destabilizing for global oil markets. Therefore, while the overall economic outlook appears positive, these potential turmoil's warrant cautious monitoring. Traders should keep a keen eye on changes and strategically plan their moves for the coming year.

Outlook on WTI and gold as year draws to an end

As the year end approaches, the outlook for WTI crude oil futures and gold remain optimistic. Oil - US Crude futures persist to be favored as supply issues continue to plague the market. Present high of 76.20 dollars acts as an upside target, preceded by 200- and 55-day simple moving averages at around 77.74 dollars to 77.83 dollars. The recent upward trend continues to show promise as long as the next low from last Thursday at 72.52 supports it. Similarly, Spot Gold's rally from its mid-December $1,974 per troy ounce low brings the previous highs from 2020, 2022, and projected May 2023 at $2,070 to $2,082 within perspective. This progress comes following the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar, with the next resistance zone projecting to the early December's $2,121 all-time record high. Source: IG Bank Switzerland

XAG/USD corrects to near $24 amid a thin-trading week
Silver prices have corrected to nearly $24 amid a thin week of trading volumes, brought about by holiday celebrations. Despite expectations of the Federal Reserve moving towards lower interest rates sooner than expected, the white metal is facing sales pressure. The US Dollar Index has also dipped to a five-month low near 101.40, a shift connected to rises in US home prices and investors suspecting potential declines in the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure price index. This week, the USD Index might face increased pressure due to a lack of major economic events. Meanwhile, many investors are anticipating a clear inflation downtrend in the US. The silver price faced selling pressure after confronting significant resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from early December. As a result, it has now dropped below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average, which is about $24.20. The Relative Strength Index has also dipped below 40, shedding bullish sentiment for the asset. Source: FXStreet

Commercial real estate sector hopes for rebound starting late next year 

After a challenging 2023, the US commercial real estate sector is foreseeing a possible rebound starting late next year, as they anticipate that the Federal Reserve will start to moderate the high interest rates.The past year saw the worst period for the commercial property industry since the Great Recession, as debt costs doubled and lending for many purchases and new construction froze. Despite the slowdown, experts remain hopeful of a rebound by the second half of next year, as they expect the Federal Reserve to begin to decrease interest rates, thereby enhancing the borrowing situation for commercial real estate transactions. Source: The Dallas Morning News.

Zillow's top 10 most popular markets of 2023 shows swing to the East
In 2023, Zillow's top 10 most popular markets revealed a geographical shift towards the East. The list includes West Chester, Pennsylvania, Nashua and Manchester in New Hampshire, Wethersfield, West Hartford and Middletown in Connecticut, as well as Stow and Twinsburg in Ohio, Newington, Connecticut, and Concord, New Hampshire. The trend suggests a move away from larger cities to smaller towns, according to a report by Zillow. The most popular market, West Chester, has seen its home values increase by over 8% in the past year due to strong interest, despite only having 20,000 residents. The real estate company also disclosed that the total value of the US housing market has jumped $2.6 trillion in the past year, standing at a staggering $51.94 trillion. Source: USA Today

Stocks & Bonds

US stock futures were flat on Wednesday as traders anticipated the S&P 500's potential reach to a record level. Futures tied to the S&P 500 declined marginally alongside Nasdaq-100 futures, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down by just seven points. This development follows a positive day on Wall Street to commence the last trading week of 2023, putting the S&P 500 within 0.5% of its closing record high that was set in January 2022. Nasdaq-100 also broke a record in the previous session. The Dow and S&P 500 are approaching a 13% and 24% increase, respectively, for 2023, while the Nasdaq Composite has seen a massive 44% rise. The market may yet face turbulence, however, if the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate decreases later than anticipated. Source: CNBC

Despite increasing geopolitical risks, early indications suggest the global stock market could continue rallying in 2024. Factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts, favorable company earnings forecasts, and a robust labor market are giving Wall Street a bullish bias. Despite apprehensions about a potential economic recession and ongoing conflicts such as the war between Russia and Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, the market rose with the support of many bullish stocks. Historically, declining bond yields have also benefited the stock market. Although there's a possibility of a market downturn occurring early in 2024, it's more likely to be short-lived, possibly setting the stage for another bull market stretch in 2024. Source:

European shares are on the rise, with global stock markets lingering near record highs as trading concludes for 2023. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index saw a modest increase, as oil and gas, and technology stocks made substantial gains. The S&P 500 in the U.S. is also eyeing an all-time high after a successful day on the market. Asian-Pacific shares also saw an uptick, with Chinese and Hong Kong indexes seeing a boost from strong showings in video game stocks. Trading volumes are projected to remain thin for the remainder of the year due to fewer data points on the economic calendar and all major central bank meetings having concluded. Vestas shares climbed over 6% after winning a substantial new order in Australia, causing a ripple effect in other wind firms. Despite the overall market high, shares in Danish shipping giant Maersk fell by 4%. U.S. traders should watch this trend of a global uptick in stocks carefully. Source: CNBC

Schedule A Call Now

Futures trading is speculative and involves the potential loss of investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors.

Nell Sloane, Capital Trading Group, LLLP is not affiliated with nor do they endorse, sponsor, or recommend any product or service advertised herein, unless otherwise specifically noted.

CTG Daily Commentary is published by Capital Trading Group, LLLP and Nell Sloane is the editor of this publication. The information contained herein was taken from financial information sources deemed to be reliable and accurate at the time it was published, but changes in the marketplace may cause this information to become out dated and obsolete.

It should be noted that Capital Trading Group, LLLP nor Nell Sloane has verified the completeness of the information contained herein. Statements of opinion and recommendations, will be introduced as such, and generally reflect the judgment and opinions of Nell Sloane, these opinions may change at any time without written notice, and Capital Trading Group, LLLP assumes no duty or responsibility to update you regarding any changes. Market opinions contained herein are intended as general observations and are not intended as specific investment advice.

Any references to products offered by Capital Trading Group, LLLP are not a solicitation for any investment. Readers are urged to contact your account representative for more information about the unique risks associated with futures trading and we encourage you to review all disclosures before making any decision to invest. This electronic newsletter does not constitute an offer of sales of any securities. Nell Sloane, Capital Trading Group, LLP and their officers, directors, and/or employees may or may not have investments in markets or programs mentioned herein.